Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle: Premier League Clash on 10 May 2026

The City Ground stages a tense late-season Premier League meeting on 10 May 2026 as Nottingham Forest host Newcastle. With three games left, Forest sit 16th on 42 points and are not mathematically safe, while Newcastle are 13th on 45 points but coming off a worrying run of defeats. Both sides still have work to do to make sure this campaign does not drift into danger.

Context and stakes

In the league, Nottingham Forest’s position (16th) belies their recent momentum. They have taken 42 points from 35 matches with a goal difference of -2 (44 scored, 46 conceded) and come into this fixture on a five-game unbeaten streak in the league (form: WWWDW). Newcastle, three places higher in 13th, have 45 points from 35 games, also with a -2 goal difference (49 scored, 51 conceded) but arrive with form that reads WLLLL – one win and four defeats in their last five league outings.

Forest’s primary target is to secure safety without taking it to the final day. A win would almost certainly push them clear of the bottom three. Newcastle, meanwhile, are seeking to halt a slide that has turned a mid-table platform into a nervy finish, and they also need to be mindful of being dragged back towards the pack below.

Forest: compact structure, Gibbs-White as the reference point

Across all phases this season, Forest have been at their most stable in a 4-2-3-1, used 29 times. That system is built around Morgan Gibbs-White, who has been one of the standout attacking midfielders in the division.

Gibbs-White’s numbers in the league are impressive:

• 35 appearances (33 starts), 2,930 minutes
• 13 goals and 4 assists
• 54 shots, 28 on target
• 1,139 passes with 46 key passes and 81% accuracy

He is Forest’s creative and scoring hub, occupying the central pocket behind the striker, linking transitions, and providing the final pass. His penalty record this season is also clean: 1 scored, 0 missed.

Forest’s overall attacking output in the league – 44 goals in 35 games, 1.3 per match – is modest but trending upwards given their recent form. At home, though, they have been less prolific: 18 goals in 17 matches (1.1 per game), winning only 4 of those 17, with 6 draws and 7 defeats. They have failed to score in 9 home fixtures, underlining that their attacking rhythm at the City Ground can be fragile if Gibbs-White is isolated.

Defensively, Forest concede 1.2 goals per game at home (21 in 17) and have kept 4 home clean sheets (9 overall). They are not especially dominant, but they are rarely blown away: their biggest home defeat in the league is 0-3, and their heaviest overall losses are by three goals.

Team news complicates Nuno’s options. Nottingham Forest will be without W. Boly (knee injury), C. Hudson-Odoi (injury), John Victor (knee injury) and N. Savona (knee injury). O. Aina is listed as questionable with an injury. The absence of Hudson-Odoi removes a natural wide threat and dribbler, which may push even more creative responsibility onto Gibbs-White and the full-backs. If Aina does not make it, Forest lose a flexible defensive option who can play on either flank or in a back three.

With limited attacking depth, Forest are likely to lean into their 4-2-3-1 structure: a double pivot to protect the back four, Gibbs-White roaming between the lines, and wide players working back aggressively to support their full-backs against Newcastle’s 4-3-3.

Newcastle: 4-3-3, possession midfield, but travel issues

Newcastle’s season has been shaped by a clear tactical identity. Across all phases, they have lined up in a 4-3-3 in 27 of their 35 league matches, with occasional switches to 4-2-3-1. They aim to control central areas through their midfield, and the standout figure has been Bruno Guimarães.

Bruno’s league output:

• 26 appearances (24 starts), 2,210 minutes
• 9 goals, 5 assists
• 29 shots (18 on target)
• 1,266 passes with 43 key passes and 86% accuracy
• 55 tackles and 13 interceptions

He is both the metronome and a goal threat from midfield, capable of dictating tempo and arriving in advanced positions. From the spot, he has scored 2 penalties and missed none, underlining his reliability from 11 metres this season.

In the league, Newcastle have scored 49 goals (1.4 per game), but their attack is heavily skewed towards home fixtures: 33 goals in 18 home games (1.8 per match) versus just 16 in 17 away matches (0.9 per match). Away from St. James’ Park they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats, failing to score in 7 of those 17 games. Their away goal difference (16 for, 22 against) reflects a side that struggles to translate their home fluency onto the road.

Defensively, they concede 1.3 goals per game away (22 in 17), with 5 away clean sheets (8 overall). Their biggest away defeat is 4-1, suggesting that when the structure breaks, it can unravel quickly.

Injuries have hit the back line hard. Newcastle will be without E. Krafth (knee injury), V. Livramento (thigh injury), L. Miley (broken leg) and F. Schar (ankle injury). The absence of Schar is particularly significant: he is an experienced organiser and ball-playing centre-back, and without him the build-up from deep and defensive leadership can suffer. With both Krafth and Livramento out, right-back options are thinned, which could influence how high Newcastle dare to push their full-backs.

Given those absences, the likely pattern is a slightly more cautious 4-3-3: full-backs less aggressive, the midfield three tasked with controlling possession and protecting a makeshift back line, and Bruno Guimarães given license to step forward when the structure is secure.

Head-to-head: Newcastle’s recent edge

Looking at the last five competitive meetings between these sides:

• 5 October 2025, St. James’ Park (Premier League): Newcastle 2-0 Nottingham Forest – Newcastle win.
• 23 February 2025, St. James’ Park (Premier League): Newcastle 4-3 Nottingham Forest – Newcastle win.
• 10 November 2024, The City Ground (Premier League): Nottingham Forest 1-3 Newcastle – Newcastle win.
• 28 August 2024, The City Ground (League Cup, after extra time and penalties): Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle (3-4 on penalties) – Newcastle progress after penalties.
• 10 February 2024, The City Ground (Premier League): Nottingham Forest 2-3 Newcastle – Newcastle win.

Across these five competitive fixtures, Newcastle have 4 wins in regulation time and 1 win on penalties; Nottingham Forest have 0 wins and there have been 0 draws in 90 minutes.

Tactical keys

• Midfield control: Forest’s double pivot must disrupt Bruno Guimarães’ rhythm. If Newcastle’s number 39 is allowed to dictate, Newcastle’s territorial advantage will grow despite their away struggles.
• Wide areas: With Hudson-Odoi out and Newcastle’s full-back options depleted, the flanks become a battleground of patched-together solutions. Forest may try to overload whichever side Newcastle field their less experienced full-back.
• Set pieces and penalties: Both teams have perfect penalty records in the league this season at team level (Forest 3 scored of 3; Newcastle 6 scored of 6), and Gibbs-White (1/1) and Bruno (2/2) are both reliable from the spot. In a tight game, this could matter.
• Game state and risk: Forest’s home record suggests they are more pragmatic at the City Ground, while Newcastle’s away numbers and defensive injuries may push them towards caution, at least early on.

The verdict

Data points in two directions. Recent form and momentum clearly favour Nottingham Forest: unbeaten in five in the league and finally finding a level of consistency, even if their home attacking output remains modest. Newcastle, by contrast, are on a run of four defeats in five, travel poorly (4 wins in 17 away matches) and arrive with significant defensive absences.

However, the head-to-head record is overwhelmingly in Newcastle’s favour, with Forest yet to beat them in the last five competitive meetings and repeatedly conceding multiple goals. Newcastle also have the single most influential midfielder on the pitch in Bruno Guimarães.

Balancing Forest’s current trajectory, home advantage and Newcastle’s away and injury issues against that historical edge, the numbers suggest a tight contest. Forest look slightly better placed to avoid defeat, but Newcastle’s individual quality and H2H pattern mean a draw or narrow away win are both plausible outcomes. A low-scoring, cagey match with one goal either way – or shared points – feels the most logical projection.