Mbappé's Ballon d'Or Hopes Diminished by Spain's Exit
Kylian Mbappé went to North America looking every inch the heir to the throne. Eight goals, a semi-final run, the familiar feeling that when the ball found him, anything could happen. For a moment, the Ballon d’Or conversation bent in his direction.
Then Spain shut the door.
France’s exit has not only cut short another shot at international glory, it has also dragged Mbappé back into a harsher reality. At club level, the 2025-26 season with Real Madrid delivered the one thing a superstar cannot control alone: nothing in the trophy cabinet. A second straight year without major silverware at the Bernabéu is a brutal line on any Ballon d’Or résumé.
The numbers are there. The influence is there. The medals are not.
Mbappé’s brilliance, blocked by the rules of the game
Jeremie Aliadière knows how the narrative works. Speaking to GOAL in association with Betinia NJ, the former France international did not dress it up. Asked if Mbappé is set to see his Ballon d’Or drought continue, he was blunt.
He pointed to the simple equation that has defined the award for a generation: individual excellence is only half the job. To climb to the top of that podium, you almost always need a Champions League, a World Cup, a Euros. Something heavy and shining in your hands.
By that measure, Mbappé is short.
Aliadière acknowledged the forward’s season for what it was: a “ridiculous” goal return, long stretches where he carried Real Madrid almost single-handedly, a campaign that underlined his status as one of the game’s most devastating match-winners. On a personal level, outstanding. On a collective level, empty.
And that, in this era, is usually a deal-breaker.
Harry Kane stands as a parallel case. The England captain’s form and numbers put him firmly in the frame, but when England fell short, so did his chances. No trophy, no crowning moment, no decisive tilt in the voting.
The award tends to follow the confetti.
Messi, again, at the centre of it all
While Mbappé’s season hit a ceiling, Lionel Messi has quietly built another towering campaign. At 39, he has dragged Argentina back to a World Cup final, scoring eight times along the way, shaping another run that has felt almost inevitable from the moment the tournament began.
He already owns eight Ballons d’Or. A ninth is no longer a romantic notion; it sits one game away, waiting on what he can summon against Spain.
Aliadière sees the tide turning towards the Albiceleste. In his view, the winner is likely to come from that dressing room, and if Messi lifts the World Cup again, the rest of the field may simply fade from view. The age, the stage, the weight of his performances – all of it would dominate the conversation.
There is also the quirk of his club situation. Messi has just completed a 2025 campaign in North America that brought MLS Cup glory and MVP honours with Inter Miami. It is not Europe. It is not the Champions League. Yet if he crowns that domestic success with another World Cup, Aliadière believes many will simply look at the totality of his year, not the league he plays in.
The spectacle would overwhelm the context.
MLS magic, global impact
Messi’s form in MLS has not been a semi-retirement. He has dictated games, lifted Inter Miami to the top, and turned every outing into an event. The trophies have followed. The MVP tag underlines what the eyes have already seen.
On the international stage, the standard has barely dipped. England discovered that the hard way in Atlanta, where Argentina edged a dramatic semi-final and Messi again left his fingerprints all over the contest. He remains, even now, the reference point in the biggest matches.
Former MLS star and World Cup winner Kleberson summed up the feeling that runs through much of the game. Speaking to GOAL, he marvelled at Messi’s relentlessness and made a stark comparison with Cristiano Ronaldo’s situation.
Ronaldo, he noted, still performs at a high level, but the supporting cast around him with Portugal cannot match what Messi enjoys with Argentina. The structure, the chemistry, the purity of the football – Kleberson sees a clear difference. That gap, he believes, gives Argentina a greater chance of winning the World Cup again, and Messi a clear path back to the Ballon d’Or stage.
For Kleberson, if Messi lifts another World Cup, the award is not just possible, it is inevitable. “One hundred per cent,” was his verdict on the Argentine’s chances in that scenario. The admiration stretches beyond borders: he spoke of Brazilian players and fans who simply want to see the game’s true artists rewarded, those who make football a joy to watch. In his eyes, Messi remains firmly in that category.
The shifting balance of power
So the landscape looks familiar, yet subtly altered. Mbappé is still the face of the next decade, still the player every defender fears most, but the old king has not stepped aside. Not yet.
The Frenchman’s season has reminded everyone that individual brilliance can be trapped by collective failure. Messi’s year, by contrast, has shown that even at 39, the greatest of his era can still bend tournaments, clubs, and awards to his will.
If Argentina finish the job against Spain, the Ballon d’Or stage may once again belong to the man who has owned it for so long. And if that happens, the question will not be whether Messi has one more year at the top.
It will be how long Mbappé is prepared to wait to take it from him.
