Mallorca vs Villarreal: La Liga Clash on May 10, 2026

Mallorca host Villarreal at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga on 10 May 2026, with the visitors pushing for the Champions League places and the hosts looking to secure a safe mid‑table finish. The standings underline the gap: Mallorca are 15th with 38 points from 34 matches (10‑8‑16, 42‑51), while Villarreal sit 3rd on 68 points (21‑5‑8, 64‑39). Bookmakers, however, price this more evenly than the table suggests, with Mallorca slight favourites at home around 2.30–2.47, Villarreal 2.75–3.00, and the draw 3.12–3.60.

Form-wise, both sides come in reasonably strong over their last five. Mallorca’s last‑five index is 67% overall, with 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average. Villarreal match that 67% form but with a more explosive attack (10 goals, 2.0 per game) and slightly leakier defence (1.0 conceded on average). Over the full league campaign, Villarreal’s superiority is clear: 64 goals scored at 1.9 per match versus Mallorca’s 42 (1.2 per match). Defensively, Villarreal also edge it, conceding 39 (1.1 per game) against Mallorca’s 51 (1.5 per game).

Home/away splits are crucial for betting here. Mallorca are much better at Son Moix than on their travels: 8‑5‑4 at home, scoring 27 and conceding 20. Villarreal are outstanding at home but merely decent away: 7‑4‑6 on the road, with 23 scored and 24 conceded. That explains why the market gives Mallorca marginal favourite status despite Villarreal’s higher overall quality.

Attacking profiles suggest Villarreal will create more. Their comparison metrics give them 56% in attack versus Mallorca’s 44%, and they dominate the goals share in the model (77% vs 23%). Players like Georges Mikautadze (11 goals, 5 assists) and Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 4 assists), plus Nicolas Pépé (8 goals, 6 assists), give Villarreal multiple scoring threats. Mallorca rely heavily on Vedat Muriqi, who has an impressive 21 league goals; if Villarreal can limit supply to him, Mallorca’s threat drops significantly.

Defensively, Mallorca have a slight edge in the model (56% vs 44%), and their recent record of 4 goals conceded in five matches hints at a tighter back line, especially at home. Villarreal’s away defence (24 conceded in 17) can be vulnerable, particularly late in games, and both teams show a tendency to concede in the final 15 minutes, which supports in‑play or late‑goal angles.

Head‑to‑Head

Head‑to‑head in La Liga reinforces Villarreal’s psychological advantage. On 22 November 2025 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal beat Mallorca 2‑1. Earlier that year on 20 January 2025, again at Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal won 4‑0. In Palma on 14 September 2024, Villarreal edged a 2‑1 victory at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. On 20 January 2024, the sides drew 1‑1 at Estadio de la Cerámica. On 18 August 2023, Villarreal won 1‑0 away at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Earlier, on 18 February 2023, Mallorca beat Villarreal 4‑2 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, and on 6 November 2022 Mallorca also won 2‑0 away at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. On 22 January 2022, Villarreal won 3‑0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, followed by a 0‑0 draw at Iberostar Estadi on 19 September 2021, and a 1‑0 Villarreal home win on 16 June 2020 at Estadio de la Cerámica. These fixtures show Villarreal have travelled well to Mallorca in recent years, with several narrow away wins.

The official prediction model gives Mallorca only a 10% win probability, with both draw and Villarreal at 45%. That aligns with a game where Villarreal are the stronger side but where home advantage and Mallorca’s solid recent form make the stalemate highly plausible. The advice is explicitly “Double chance: draw or Villarreal,” and the comparison section rates Villarreal at 61.7% overall versus Mallorca’s 38.3%.

Overlaying that with the odds, Villarreal double chance (X2) looks like the clearest value-congruent play: the model strongly favours Villarreal avoiding defeat, while the market still prices Mallorca as slight favourites. With both teams’ recent defensive numbers and the goals projections set under 2.5 for each side, a relatively controlled match is likely rather than a shootout.

Betting verdict: follow the model and back Villarreal not to lose. The primary recommendation is Double chance: draw or Villarreal (X2). For correct-score and side markets, Villarreal or draw in a low‑to‑medium scoring contest (1‑1 or 1‑2 type profiles) is the data‑driven angle.