Levante vs Osasuna: La Liga Clash Analysis

Estadio Ciudad de Valencia hosts a high‑pressure La Liga clash on 8 May 2026, with Levante fighting for survival in 19th place on 33 points and Osasuna sitting in mid‑table comfort in 10th on 42 points. Despite Levante’s urgent need for points, the model slightly favours the visitors: the official prediction gives Levante just 10% win probability, with draw and Osasuna each at 45%.

Form-wise, Levante’s overall league record (8‑9‑17, goal difference ‑17) underlines why they are in the relegation zone. At home they are slightly better (5‑5‑7, goals 21‑26), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Their last five overall show a mixed picture: form index 47%, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded (0.8 for, 1.4 against per match). Offensively they are rated at 33% in the last‑five attack index and 42% defensively, which is modest in both phases.

Osasuna, by contrast, have been more consistent across the campaign: 11‑9‑14 (goal difference ‑2). However, there is a sharp home/away split. At home they are strong (9‑5‑3, 29‑20), but away they drop off significantly (2‑4‑11, 11‑22), averaging only 0.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on the road. Their last five overall yield a form index of 33%, but with a better attacking output than Levante: 6 goals scored and 7 conceded (1.2 for, 1.4 against). In the comparison section, Osasuna edge Levante in attack (60% vs 40%), while defence is rated equal (50% vs 50%). The overall comparison index also leans to Osasuna (55.5% vs 44.5%).

Timing of goals is relevant for in‑play and totals. Levante score heavily late, with 32.50% of their goals between 76‑90 minutes, but they also concede 30.19% in the same window, suggesting open, chaotic endings. Osasuna show a similar late‑goal pattern: 46.15% of their goals between 76‑90 minutes, while 30.23% of goals conceded come in minutes 61‑75. This supports a bias towards second‑half action rather than early fireworks.

Head‑to‑Head

Head‑to‑head in La Liga is clearly tilted towards Osasuna in recent years. On 8 December 2025 at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna beat Levante 2‑0 in the league. Earlier, on 19 March 2022, again in La Liga at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna won 3‑1. In Valencia, the sides drew 0‑0 on 5 December 2021 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, and Osasuna had previously won 1‑0 there on 14 February 2021, also in La Liga. Going back to 27 September 2020 in La Liga at Estadio El Sadar, Levante did win 3‑1 away, but Osasuna responded with a 2‑0 home league win on 24 January 2020. Further La Liga meetings in 2019, 2013 and 2012 show a mix of Levante wins, Osasuna wins and draws, but the model’s h2h comparison summarises the balance as 71% in favour of Osasuna versus 29% for Levante, excluding friendlies.

The official prediction is clear: winner “Osasuna – Win or draw”, with explicit advice “Double chance : draw or Osasuna” and a win‑or‑draw flag set to true. That aligns with the statistical edge in the comparison metrics and Osasuna’s superior league position, even allowing for their poor away record.

Market prices, however, are relatively balanced. Across major bookmakers, Levante are roughly between 2.43 and 2.71, Osasuna between 2.56 and 2.95, and the draw around 3.00–3.40. Pinnacle, for example, posts 2.66 home, 3.17 draw, 2.92 away; 1xBet goes as far as 2.71 home, 3.25 draw, 2.95 away. This suggests the market views the game as close to a coin‑flip on the 1X2.

Betting verdict, following the model’s advice: the value‑aligned and lower‑risk angle is Osasuna double chance (X2). The prediction engine assigns a combined 90% probability to draw or Osasuna compared with only 10% for a Levante win, while the odds imply a much more balanced contest. With both teams averaging just over 1 goal scored and around 1.2–1.6 conceded, a tight match with limited scoring is plausible, but the strongest data‑driven stance is to side with the official advice: back draw or Osasuna on the double‑chance market.