FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay: USL Championship Clash Analysis

FC Tulsa welcome Monterey Bay to ONEOK Field in a USL Championship group stage clash where the hosts are better placed in the table and carry the clear analytical edge. Tulsa sit 7th in USL 1 with 16 points from 11 matches (4-4-3, goals 14-14), while Monterey Bay are 12th with 11 points from 12 games (3-2-7, goals 13-20). Tulsa are tracking toward the 1/8 final play‑off spots, whereas Monterey Bay are trying to pull away from the lower reaches.

Looking at current form using comparable sample sizes, Tulsa’s last five league matches are strong: their last‑five index shows 67% form, with a 100% attack rating and 22% defensive rating, scoring 9 and conceding 7 (1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded on average). Monterey Bay’s last five are similar in raw output (form 60%, attack 100%, defence 22%, goals 10 for and 7 against, 2.0 scored, 1.4 conceded), but that surge comes after a very poor longer run.

Over the full 2026 campaign, Tulsa are more balanced. From standings, they average 1.27 goals for and 1.27 against (14-14 in 11). At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss with 6-4 goals, showing a solid base and relatively tight defence (0.8 conceded per home game per team statistics). Monterey Bay, by contrast, concede heavily away: 12 goals against in 5 away fixtures (2.4 per game) with only 4 scored. Their away record in standings is 0-1-4, underlining how vulnerable they are on their travels despite the recent improvement in overall form.

The goal‑timing data reinforces the idea of Tulsa being dangerous after the break. Their league goals are concentrated between minutes 31‑75, where they have 11 of their 14 goals. Monterey Bay concede most between minutes 46‑75, with 13 of 20 goals allowed in that window, a direct tactical mismatch that favours Tulsa to grow into the game and exploit second‑half spaces.

Head-to-Head Data

Head‑to‑head data in the USL Championship also tilts toward the hosts. On 2026‑05‑03 at Cardinale Stadium, FC Tulsa came from behind to beat Monterey Bay 2‑1 away. In 2025, the sides met three times in the league: on 2025‑08‑07 at Cardinale Stadium, Tulsa won 3‑2 away; on 2025‑07‑17 at ONEOK Field, Tulsa won 2‑1 at home. In 2024, they drew 0‑0 at Cardinale Stadium on 2024‑07‑14, before Tulsa edged a 2‑1 home win at ONEOK Field on 2024‑10‑27. The earliest listed meeting came on 2023‑06‑01 at Cardinale Stadium, a 0‑0 draw, and on 2022‑10‑13 at ONEOK Field, Tulsa (then listed as Tulsa Roughnecks) beat Monterey Bay 2‑0. All of these matches were in the USL Championship, and they show a consistent pattern of Tulsa being very hard for Monterey Bay to beat, especially in Oklahoma where Tulsa have repeatedly found ways to win by narrow margins.

Prediction Model

The prediction model in the JSON is decisive: FC Tulsa are flagged as the expected side not to lose, with “Win or draw” as the winner comment and a clear betting advice of “Double chance : FC Tulsa or draw”. Implied probabilities are 45% home, 45% draw, 10% away, and the comparison model gives Tulsa 64.2% overall edge versus 35.8% for Monterey Bay. The Poisson distribution also strongly favours Tulsa (78% vs 22%), while the head‑to‑head comparison metric is heavily in Tulsa’s favour.

Goal expectations are modest: both teams are tagged with “-2.5” in the goals field, aligning with under‑leaning totals data (for both sides, league under 2.5 has hit more often than over). Tulsa’s league under/over profile shows only 2 of 11 matches over 2.5, and Monterey Bay have just 1 of 12 over 2.5.

Betting verdict: the data‑driven play is to follow the official advice and back FC Tulsa on the double chance (home or draw). For side markets, a cautious lean would be toward under 3.0 or under 2.5 goals, and a Tulsa‑favoured correct‑score corridor around 1‑0 or 2‑1, but the core value angle remains Tulsa not to lose at home.