Cape Verde's World Cup Surprises Continue Against Uruguay

Cape Verde keep tearing up the script. After holding Spain, they have now stood firm against Uruguay too, and the World Cup’s surprise package is no longer catching everyone cold.

The BBC’s new predictor game reflects that shift. When Cape Verde faced Spain, an overwhelming 99.65% of users backed them to lose. Against Uruguay, that figure dropped to 83%. Doubt remains, but blind dismissal is gone.

Across the board, though, the users are starting to boss this contest. They are outperforming BBC Sport predictions expert Chris Sutton and the AI model drafted in to challenge him.

Sutton improved in the second round of 24 group games, correctly calling 14 results after getting 12 right in the opening set. The AI nudged its tally up too, from 13 to 15 out of 24. Then the crowd roared past both: users nailed 18 of the 24 fixtures, a huge jump from their previous 13.

Now comes the decisive swing: the final group matches, with heavyweight fixtures such as Scotland versus Brazil and England against Panama on the slate. Sutton has committed to predicting all 104 games at this World Cup, and he has already set out how he thinks each of the 12 groups will finish. The AI’s calls, generated via Microsoft Copilot Chat, came from one simple instruction: predict the results of the second round of group games. The public, via the BBC predictor game, get to go match by match, choosing a winner or playing safe with a draw.

This is where reputations get made – and shredded.

Mexico rotation offers Czech Republic a glimmer

Mexico City / Thursday, 25 June / 02:00 BST

Mexico have already done the hard work. They are through to the last 32 as group winners, whatever happens at Estadio Azteca, and that security will almost certainly bring sweeping changes.

That, at least, is the hope the Czech Republic cling to. They must win to have any chance of progressing, and a rotated Mexico offers their best possible opening.

But this is Mexico in their own cathedral. Sutton watched them dismantle South Africa here, feeding off the noise, the colour, the altitude. Estadio Azteca changes teams; it inflates the hosts and drains visitors.

As Sutton’s 5 live commentary partner Alistair Bruce-Ball put it to him, Mexico will want to do their country proud. The thin air will not do the Czechs any favours either.

Even so, Sutton senses a twist. He goes for a narrow Czech win:

Sutton's prediction: 0-1
AI's prediction: 1-2

Two models, same outcome: Mexico beaten. The group table says one thing; the forecasts whisper another.

Argentina ready to rest Messi – and still roll on

Dallas / Sunday, 28 June / 03:00

Argentina have wrapped up their group. That luxury brings a different kind of decision, one that echoes far beyond Dallas: what to do with Lionel Messi.

Sutton expects changes and believes one of them will be the captain stepping aside. Rest now, or risk later. Protecting Messi, he argues, boosts Argentina’s chances of lifting the trophy, even if it dents his pursuit of the Golden Boot and his record as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.

His supporters will not like it. They rarely do when he is left out. But this is tournament football, not a farewell tour. Wrap him in cotton wool, save him for the nights that decide everything.

The verdict on Jordan is ruthless. Messi or no Messi, Sutton does not see them living with Argentina’s firepower.

Sutton's prediction: 0-3
AI's prediction: 0-3

On this one, human and machine are in total agreement: Argentina stroll, Messi rests, the campaign stays on course.

Ronaldo to score, Portugal to slip?

Miami / Sunday, 28 June / 00:30

Miami brings jeopardy. Portugal need a win to top the group, and they know it.

Sutton watched them tear through Uzbekistan in their previous outing, a statement victory that underlined their attacking depth. Colombia, though, are a very different test: awkward, resilient, and more than capable of dragging a game into a dogfight.

He senses a bump in the road. Sutton goes for a draw, a result that would leave Portugal short of top spot. He still backs Cristiano Ronaldo to dominate the headlines, predicting both of Portugal’s goals will come from their talisman. It just will not be enough.

The joke writes itself: Sutton suggests Ronaldo will simply keep going until the 2040 World Cup. The AI is less sentimental and backs Portugal to edge it.

Sutton's prediction: 2-2
AI's prediction: 1-2

One forecast leans into chaos, the other into control. Colombia will decide which story sticks.

England, Tuchel and a must-win against Panama

New York / Saturday, 27 June / 22:00

Thomas Tuchel’s half-time magic deserted him against Ghana. Against Croatia, his interval words were hailed as transformational in a big win. This time, the switch flicked the wrong way and England paid for it.

Now there is no room for missteps. England must beat Panama.

Sutton expects tweaks rather than an overhaul. Harry Kane, he says, will start again, but the wide areas could change. Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford are tipped to come in on the wings, with Noni Madueke likely to make way.

On the left side of defence, Sutton is clear: Nico O'Reilly has to start at left-back instead of Djed Spence. In his eyes, O’Reilly offers more all-round quality, a better fit for a game England cannot afford to drift through.

Panama have been stubborn so far, losing 1-0 in both of their matches. They have made opponents work. Sutton does not see that continuing. He expects England to win with something to spare, and for Kane to respond after that glaring late miss against Ghana.

Goals, then, and a captain back in rhythm.